He was involved in the club of Rome, and the early modeling of the Earth as a dynamic system with multiple postive and negative feedback loops maintaining a dynamic homeostatic balance to keep the planetary climate in a range that supported the abundant range of life on the plant. He covered that in great detail in that class, showing us a graph of the growth of CO2 and how the normal range was behind us, talking about the growth of methane release as well. In 1991 he told the class this:
The feedback loops that maintain the dynamic homeostasis that supports life are now outside their normal range and are subject to oscillation. Climate change, or global warming is the wrong term. It oscillation. When a tipping point is reached in one of the dozens of feedback loops that keep the climate within its range, that sub system will never be able to get back to the place where it needs to be. And more and more tipping points will be crossed in the decades ahead, because human beings are addicted to economic growth, population growth, and capitalism destablizing the planetary climate system. So, 30 years from now, you can expect to see more oscillation. That means the atmosphere will be able to hold more water, extreme rainfalls will occur in a short period of time in various places around the world, 8, 10, 12 or more inches. Extreme flooding will occur, extreme droubts will occur, warmer winters, warmer summers, more warming at the poles, stronger, new category of hurricanes, the global South will become more and more unlivable. Temperatures will rise to the point where people will not be able to survive outside for periods in the year. At the end of the class, I walked up to him, and asked, you drew an upward line to the top of the blackboard. What does that mean? At some point the system can't stay within its parameters, and the wider oscillations move sharply up to a new dynamic range. Which means what, Professor? The Anthropocene. Extinction of life. It includes us. Everything he said about the future 32 years ago, has come true. After that class, i decided I would never have children. It just didn't make any sense. His lecture changed how I viewed the world.
For years, I've enjoyed going to the Conway, MA area and visiting Christian owner of South River, Miso company and the organic farm nestled by the shallow, slow flowing South River. A bucolic and wonderful place where my friend and I caught rainbow trout in a couple of deeper holes. Not this year. The South River, when 8 inches of rain fell, then several 2 inch rainstorms rose 10 feet, ripped away the banks and uprooted trees. That pristine soil and lovely plants, that had been plowed the traditional way by quarter horses, was torn up and completely destroyed. The two local farms I go to in my area of Massachusetts, have no stone fruits, because February was so warm, the plants got confused and budded, then the blossoms froze. No peaches, no plums, no heirloom apples, no early summer apples, no apricots, no nectarines that are local. It sucks. We have a nice vegetable garden, and its been a challenge this year, with all the extreme rain, to keep the plants somewhat healthy.
My Electricity costs were sky high last year, as I own a building with 20 tenants, and heat was included in the rent. Well, the rent had to go up. I did lock in, a better rate and signed up for 60 months to create some certainty. The building is older, and the basement has a dirt floor. Its always been cool down there, but things seem to be changing. So it will cost me around 18,000 dollars to put in a concrete floor in the basement, so I can put in a high quality dehumidification system just to be safe. And I have a summer home on Marthas Vineyard. It used to be you never needed air conditioning down there. The ocean breezes took care of your cooling in the summer and at night.
And that's what most people did. Now most homeowners, at least have air conditioning in most of the bedrooms and living room. Now people are putting in mini splits, heat pumps and vented dehumidification systems. More and more people are doing it. And I plan to do it myself. Things have changed that much since I built my house there in 1991. And it will cost me around $35,000 dollars to do that. Its not fun to spend that kind of money, but I can afford it. I know year round people on the island, who work multiple jobs to make ends meet, who keep their heat on 60 in the winter and only run air conditioning when they must in the summer. Mostly tough it out. At the dump on the island there is a dumptic, a place where people leave items that can be reused. And there are always about 10 cars parked there, and elderly, moms, kids picking through used clothes, books, other items. I had an extra ten speed. And as I was taking it out of my vehicle, a pickup truck pulled up, with a Trump sticker, and a middle aged womn's voice boomed at me, Sir, are you donating that bike!!! Yes, I said. Put it in the back of my truck, please, my son would love that, and we couldn't afford to buy one for him. So I did.
I forgot to mention the psychological effects of a summer that seems to last forever and that has been a huge drag in my orosciticory. I’ve been depressed since June because I can’t be outside very much. There’s a ton of things I could be doing inside but my mood is so low I’m not doing them.
The kids can’t play outside in summer break except for very early in the morning. This leads to more unhealthy behavior of increased screen time. They’re ready to go back to school because they’re so bored.
Wildlife is struggling from lack of water and scarce food sources. I’m keeping several water sources available in my yard. Even the wasps and bees are thirsty. I’m seeing the pain and struggle of all living things and that is a huge anxiety burden.
The flip side to the summer effect is the winter effect of climate change. Higher highs and lower lows We’ve had three winters in a row with unusually low temps combined with summers of exceptional drought and two years now of long stretches of over 100. I spent $3k for emergency tree trimming this year after a freak ice storm in January. 13 of my 14 trees had significant damage and now I have less shade as a result. Huge swaths of central Texas had impassable roads due to fallen trees from ice. It was an enormous clean up operation by both homeowners and city and county governments. There’s no telling how many millions were spent on this one disaster.
Electric bills are up.
Homeowners insurance is up.
Watering restrictions have been nonstop for years.
Gardening is hugely challenging. I’m attempting to grow a larger portion of my own food. I’m a seasoned gardener but there’s no amount of water that will overcome the air temp sucking the life out of the plants. Plants won’t set fruit when air temp gets over a certain point. I’m feeling a lot of future food anxiety because I know what the farmers are facing Most people don’t know what it takes to put that food on their plate. I’ve invested in shade cloth to help protect the plants and the soil. The agriculture community has been working on developing new varieties of crops to hopefully be able to still have something they can grow but it all takes time.
I’m praying my air conditioner holds out. It’s 12 years old. Used to be one would last 20 years or more but like most things they aren’t designed to last as long as they used to be and replacement cost is at least double now if you can even get the parts.
I really appreciate your observations on the gardens and wildlife--thanks for sharing them. Shade cloth, I'm afraid, is going to become a widespread thing for gardening. The future of food is likely the single biggest long term, unrelenting problem climate change is creating, and there is not enough attention on it. Those of us who are farmers and gardeners see it, but the general public only sees it as inflation of prices at the grocery store.
Increased water bill for gardens. We don’t have grass and half is on drip hose now so hoping to see some savings in the next 2 months. Also seeing how little we can water and keep plants alive. Many are drought tolerant but Seattle plants are not used to heat. So many street trees died without water bags before people realized what was going on here.
One large but intangible effect of Climate Change is its effects on an individual's and that of society's psychology. I, for one think about the future issues quite a bit and sometimes feel powerless (anxiety). People in general - especially when dealing with heat, probably act with "a short fuse" (anger). Other effects add to the general malaise and derisive nature of society today (depression and division). Unfortunately, the political leaders are not stepping up, in fact, they are going in the opposite direction with infighting and mis-information.
Thanks George. I've been thinking a lot about the psychological impacts. A study in the Lancet showed that 84% of young people studied around the world experienced some form of climate anxiety. It is a very real thing, and we seem to have no way to deal with it.
In 1991, I was in the Systems dynamics class at MIT Sloan School of Management. The great man, who invented the field, was leading the class, on a day I will NEVER forget. Here is something about him: https://news.mit.edu/2016/professor-emeritus-jay-forrester-digital-computing-system-dynamics-pioneer-dies-1119
here is one of his lectures: https://killianlectures.mit.edu/jay-forrester
He was involved in the club of Rome, and the early modeling of the Earth as a dynamic system with multiple postive and negative feedback loops maintaining a dynamic homeostatic balance to keep the planetary climate in a range that supported the abundant range of life on the plant. He covered that in great detail in that class, showing us a graph of the growth of CO2 and how the normal range was behind us, talking about the growth of methane release as well. In 1991 he told the class this:
The feedback loops that maintain the dynamic homeostasis that supports life are now outside their normal range and are subject to oscillation. Climate change, or global warming is the wrong term. It oscillation. When a tipping point is reached in one of the dozens of feedback loops that keep the climate within its range, that sub system will never be able to get back to the place where it needs to be. And more and more tipping points will be crossed in the decades ahead, because human beings are addicted to economic growth, population growth, and capitalism destablizing the planetary climate system. So, 30 years from now, you can expect to see more oscillation. That means the atmosphere will be able to hold more water, extreme rainfalls will occur in a short period of time in various places around the world, 8, 10, 12 or more inches. Extreme flooding will occur, extreme droubts will occur, warmer winters, warmer summers, more warming at the poles, stronger, new category of hurricanes, the global South will become more and more unlivable. Temperatures will rise to the point where people will not be able to survive outside for periods in the year. At the end of the class, I walked up to him, and asked, you drew an upward line to the top of the blackboard. What does that mean? At some point the system can't stay within its parameters, and the wider oscillations move sharply up to a new dynamic range. Which means what, Professor? The Anthropocene. Extinction of life. It includes us. Everything he said about the future 32 years ago, has come true. After that class, i decided I would never have children. It just didn't make any sense. His lecture changed how I viewed the world.
For years, I've enjoyed going to the Conway, MA area and visiting Christian owner of South River, Miso company and the organic farm nestled by the shallow, slow flowing South River. A bucolic and wonderful place where my friend and I caught rainbow trout in a couple of deeper holes. Not this year. The South River, when 8 inches of rain fell, then several 2 inch rainstorms rose 10 feet, ripped away the banks and uprooted trees. That pristine soil and lovely plants, that had been plowed the traditional way by quarter horses, was torn up and completely destroyed. The two local farms I go to in my area of Massachusetts, have no stone fruits, because February was so warm, the plants got confused and budded, then the blossoms froze. No peaches, no plums, no heirloom apples, no early summer apples, no apricots, no nectarines that are local. It sucks. We have a nice vegetable garden, and its been a challenge this year, with all the extreme rain, to keep the plants somewhat healthy.
My Electricity costs were sky high last year, as I own a building with 20 tenants, and heat was included in the rent. Well, the rent had to go up. I did lock in, a better rate and signed up for 60 months to create some certainty. The building is older, and the basement has a dirt floor. Its always been cool down there, but things seem to be changing. So it will cost me around 18,000 dollars to put in a concrete floor in the basement, so I can put in a high quality dehumidification system just to be safe. And I have a summer home on Marthas Vineyard. It used to be you never needed air conditioning down there. The ocean breezes took care of your cooling in the summer and at night.
And that's what most people did. Now most homeowners, at least have air conditioning in most of the bedrooms and living room. Now people are putting in mini splits, heat pumps and vented dehumidification systems. More and more people are doing it. And I plan to do it myself. Things have changed that much since I built my house there in 1991. And it will cost me around $35,000 dollars to do that. Its not fun to spend that kind of money, but I can afford it. I know year round people on the island, who work multiple jobs to make ends meet, who keep their heat on 60 in the winter and only run air conditioning when they must in the summer. Mostly tough it out. At the dump on the island there is a dumptic, a place where people leave items that can be reused. And there are always about 10 cars parked there, and elderly, moms, kids picking through used clothes, books, other items. I had an extra ten speed. And as I was taking it out of my vehicle, a pickup truck pulled up, with a Trump sticker, and a middle aged womn's voice boomed at me, Sir, are you donating that bike!!! Yes, I said. Put it in the back of my truck, please, my son would love that, and we couldn't afford to buy one for him. So I did.
I forgot to mention the psychological effects of a summer that seems to last forever and that has been a huge drag in my orosciticory. I’ve been depressed since June because I can’t be outside very much. There’s a ton of things I could be doing inside but my mood is so low I’m not doing them.
The kids can’t play outside in summer break except for very early in the morning. This leads to more unhealthy behavior of increased screen time. They’re ready to go back to school because they’re so bored.
Wildlife is struggling from lack of water and scarce food sources. I’m keeping several water sources available in my yard. Even the wasps and bees are thirsty. I’m seeing the pain and struggle of all living things and that is a huge anxiety burden.
The academic journal The Lancet had a study in it indicating that 84% of young people have some level of climate anxiety. This is a very real thing.
The flip side to the summer effect is the winter effect of climate change. Higher highs and lower lows We’ve had three winters in a row with unusually low temps combined with summers of exceptional drought and two years now of long stretches of over 100. I spent $3k for emergency tree trimming this year after a freak ice storm in January. 13 of my 14 trees had significant damage and now I have less shade as a result. Huge swaths of central Texas had impassable roads due to fallen trees from ice. It was an enormous clean up operation by both homeowners and city and county governments. There’s no telling how many millions were spent on this one disaster.
Electric bills are up.
Homeowners insurance is up.
Watering restrictions have been nonstop for years.
Gardening is hugely challenging. I’m attempting to grow a larger portion of my own food. I’m a seasoned gardener but there’s no amount of water that will overcome the air temp sucking the life out of the plants. Plants won’t set fruit when air temp gets over a certain point. I’m feeling a lot of future food anxiety because I know what the farmers are facing Most people don’t know what it takes to put that food on their plate. I’ve invested in shade cloth to help protect the plants and the soil. The agriculture community has been working on developing new varieties of crops to hopefully be able to still have something they can grow but it all takes time.
I’m praying my air conditioner holds out. It’s 12 years old. Used to be one would last 20 years or more but like most things they aren’t designed to last as long as they used to be and replacement cost is at least double now if you can even get the parts.
I really appreciate your observations on the gardens and wildlife--thanks for sharing them. Shade cloth, I'm afraid, is going to become a widespread thing for gardening. The future of food is likely the single biggest long term, unrelenting problem climate change is creating, and there is not enough attention on it. Those of us who are farmers and gardeners see it, but the general public only sees it as inflation of prices at the grocery store.
Increased water bill for gardens. We don’t have grass and half is on drip hose now so hoping to see some savings in the next 2 months. Also seeing how little we can water and keep plants alive. Many are drought tolerant but Seattle plants are not used to heat. So many street trees died without water bags before people realized what was going on here.
Thank you for sharing this. It seems like each place is affected just a bit differently.
One large but intangible effect of Climate Change is its effects on an individual's and that of society's psychology. I, for one think about the future issues quite a bit and sometimes feel powerless (anxiety). People in general - especially when dealing with heat, probably act with "a short fuse" (anger). Other effects add to the general malaise and derisive nature of society today (depression and division). Unfortunately, the political leaders are not stepping up, in fact, they are going in the opposite direction with infighting and mis-information.
Thanks George. I've been thinking a lot about the psychological impacts. A study in the Lancet showed that 84% of young people studied around the world experienced some form of climate anxiety. It is a very real thing, and we seem to have no way to deal with it.